I began writing this post 2 years ago. A lot has changed since then, but I still think we are progressing towards my original view of tv future…
This is the first in a series of posts about the future of television. In the future, instead of watching tv through cable or satellite or over-the-air, all programming will arrive through the internet. The advantage – viewers can watch what they want, whenever they want. It will be impossible to “miss” an episode of Grey’s Anatomy 2, or whatever it is people will watch in the future.
Right now, watching programs through the internet is kind of possible, but it is nowhere close to ideal. The selection of content is crap, unless you like silver spoons reruns [update: this has been one area of improvement]. The quality of the video is crap (compressed and pixilated). Another drawback is that you have to watch programs on a computer while sitting in an office chair. Or worse, in bed with a laptop slowly sterilizing your genitals. Right now, you can’t sit on your couch and watch these programs on your TV with a remote control (with a few exceptions).
The benefits of internet tv over cable should be obvious. All programs will be on demand. If you want to watch this week’s Lost at 3am on a Wednesday, you will be able to do that. If you want to watch all of last week’s Young and the Restlesses in one sitting, you will be able to do that. Plus, if you want to record a video and put it on the internet, your family across the country can watch it on their tv, just like it was an episode of Monk. Finally, don’t you think it is stupid how if you live in Cleveland and move to Nebraska, you can no longer watch the Cleveland Browns unless you pay direct tv $150 per month? Programming through the internet can solve that too.
Current technology makes all this internet tv stuff possible today. The problem is that money grubbing content providers have to work with money grubbing hardware manufacturers who have to work with money grubbing internet service providers. Everyone’s extreme effort to protect their own business models and maximize their gouging efficiencies has brought progress to a slow crawl.
Eventually there will be an ideal device (box) that you plug into the wall, hook up to your television, and add to your wireless internet connection. It will be great. Presently, there are some devices that can sort of do this, but they all fail in one way or another. This series of posts will present current options and criticize them.
I’ve developed 6 questions to assess the awesomeness of these boxs. In this first post, I will demonstrate how all of these questions should be answered.
1. What is the quantity and quality of on-demand streaming content that the box can play?
This is tricky, because playing a large quantity (variety) of streaming content relies on having a relationship with content providers. Ideally, the box will have a deal with content providers where every tv show, movie, etc. is available. Presently, this is not close to any type of reality [update: improving]. For example, the box can’t play episodes of Nash Bridges if the owners of Nash Bridges don’t agree to make their episodes of Nash Bridges available. Currently, the owners of television shows and movies are very hesitant to allow their precious content to be seen by people on-demand on televisions. When boxee tried to make hulu content watchable on a television, some networks through a fit. “We don’t mind if you watch 30 Rock on a computer screen, but we don’t want you watching 30 Rock on a television or you might stop watching 30 Rock when it comes on Thursdays at 8pm and we charge higher ad dollars.” What a reasonable thought! I think once some production companies try out offering shows online and see the advertising dollars online streaming can generate, those production companies will push forward and all other companies will get on board. Anything you want to see will be available. Of course, the revenue will come from ads. The streaming content will have commercials.
As a side note, one of my bold predictions is that eventually you will get to pick and choose what type of commercials you see. In the market for a new car… all the latest car commercials. Do you want to see what fast food specials are currently being offered? Arby’s time. Why wouldn’t content providers and advertisers be happy with this model? With streaming content you won’t be able to fast forward through the commercials. Also, if you want to skip the commercials, you can just pay the cost of what the advertisers would have paid and buy the episode.
As for quality… this is a problem. The crappy internet speeds in the united states prevent this whole streaming thing from working. The quality is going to be pixilated and jumpy. This is the battlefield. Will DSL and cable providers be able and willing to take on the task of providing the necessary speeds and bandwidth to all their customers without gouging them for everything they got? I’m doubtful. Look for crap like… DSL = $50, DSL with superspeed IPTV=$150.
2. Can the box play video files stored on a hard disk/computer on your network?
Of course. And the ideal box can play any format of video file. xvid, divx, .h264, mp4, whatever. For what it’s worth, I think there will eventually be a video format victor similar to how mp3 is king of audio formats. Plus, as storage space gets cheaper, I think there will be a shift from compressed video to – not-so compressed video.
You may be thinking, “I don’t have any videos on my home network.” Or “I don’t have a home network”. You will. The hard drive and internet access will probably eventually be built into the tv. And what type of videos will you have stored? Movies, TV shows. You will buy them through the internet and store them on a hard drive. Home movies can go on these hard drives as well. Small videos, shows, and movies made for niche groups without a wide audience will also be on there. Although DVDs and Blu-ray discs are probably going to be phased out in favor of downloads, you will be able to copy your old dvd and blu-ray movies/tv shows onto your hard drive for quick access.
3. Can the box play video podcasts?
I’m defining a video podcast as a series of video files that can be subscribed to. Each new episode automatically downloads to a hard drive in your home when it is available. I’ll agree, this is very similar to the process of streaming movies and tv shows mentioned in the answer to question 1. The difference is you download and keep them. Video podcasts can be free or paid for. Video podcasts can contain commercials or not contain commercials. Video podcasts can be made by big production companies, or your doofy friends.
Of course, the ideal box will be able to download, store, and play back these podcasts as well as having a good menu system for managing subscriptions.
4. Can the box be hooked up to a television?
Of course. That’s the whole point of this ideal box. This may seem like an obvious answer, but the only reason this question is in the mix is due to the fact that a lot of the iptv options that are currently available are only available through a browser running on a computer and not on the tv. In addition to the lack of hardware currently available that can be hooked up to a tv, content providers are hesitant to allow their normal tv content…. To be seen on a tv. Eh, I already went over how I think this is stupid and temporary (see answer to question #1. The ideal box will be a mini computer. The ideal box will be a box that has a plug, audio and video out, and a built in wireless internet connection. A remote control controls all its functions).
5. Is the box easy to use?
Of course the ideal box will be easy to use. Another obvious answer, but with the stupid current options available, this question needs to be asked. As previously stated, the ideal box will have a nice menu system, where the user can easily browse for content. Maybe a sideways remote with a qwerty keyboard. Also, the ideal box will not use much power and be quiet.
6. Is this ideal box affordable?
The ideal box will cost $99.
